Useful quantitative models help you to make informed decisions both in situations in which the factors affecting your decision are clear, as well as in situations in which some important factors are not clear at all. In this course, you can learn how to create quantitative models to reflect complex realities, and how to include in your model elements of risk and uncertainty. You’ll also learn the methods for creating predictive models for identifying optimal choices; and how those choices change in response to changes in the model’s assumptions. You’ll also learn the basics of the measurement and management of risk. By the end of this course, you’ll be able to build your own models with your own data, so that you can begin making data-informed decisions. You’ll also be prepared for the next course in the Specialization.
提供方
商业与金融建模 專項課程宾夕法尼亚大学課程信息
學生職業成果
44%
32%
您將獲得的技能
學生職業成果
44%
32%
提供方
宾夕法尼亚大学
The University of Pennsylvania (commonly referred to as Penn) is a private university, located in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States. A member of the Ivy League, Penn is the fourth-oldest institution of higher education in the United States, and considers itself to be the first university in the United States with both undergraduate and graduate studies.
教學大綱 - 您將從這門課程中學到什麼
Week 1: Modeling Decisions in Low Uncertainty Settings
This module is designed to teach you how to analyze settings with low levels of uncertainty, and how to identify the best decisions in these settings. You'll explore the optimization toolkit, learn how to build an algebraic model using an advertising example, convert the algebraic model to a spreadsheet model, work with Solver to discover the best possible decision, and examine an example that introduces a simple representation of risk to the model. By the end of this module, you'll be able to build an optimization model, use Solver to uncover the optimal decision based on your data, and begin to adjust your model to account for simple elements of risk. These skills will give you the power to deal with large models as long as the actual uncertainty in the input values is not too high.
Week 2: Risk and Reward: Modeling High Uncertainty Settings
What if uncertainty is the key feature of the setting you are trying to model? In this module, you'll learn how to create models for situations with a large number of variables. You'll examine high uncertainty settings, probability distributions, and risk, common scenarios for multiple random variables, how to incorporate risk reduction, how to calculate and interpret correlation values, and how to use scenarios for optimization, including sensitivity analysis and the efficient frontier. By the end of this module, you'll be able to identify and use common models of future uncertainty to build scenarios that help you optimize your business decisions when you have multiple variables and a higher degree of risk.
Week 3: Choosing Distributions that Fit Your Data
When making business decisions, we often look to the past to make predictions for the future. In this module, you'll examine commonly used distributions of random variables to model the future and make predictions. You'll learn how to create meaningful data visualizations in Excel, how to choose the the right distribution for your data, explore the differences between discrete distributions and continuous distributions, and test your choice of model and your hypothesis for goodness of fit. By the end of this module, you'll be able to represent your data using graphs, choose the best distribution model for your data, and test your model and your hypothesis to see if they are the best fit for your data.
Week 4: Balancing Risk and Reward Using Simulation
This module is designed to help you use simulations to enabling compare different alternatives when continuous distributions are used to describe uncertainty. Through an in-depth examination of the simulation toolkit, you'll learn how to make decisions in high uncertainty settings where random inputs are described by continuous probability distributions. You'll also learn how to run a simulation model, analyze simulation output, and compare alternative decisions to decide on the most optimal solution. By the end of this module, you'll be able to make decisions and manage risk using simulation, and more broadly, to make successful business decisions in an increasing complex and rapidly evolving business world.
審閱
來自MODELING RISK AND REALITIES的熱門評論
covers good amount of material and exactly what is in the outline, presented with enough detail to follow. Good walk-through of the spreadsheets helps understanding, easy to follow along and practice.
Material was very well presented. Week 3 was challenging, but taking time to print out the slides, work through them rigorously proved very helpful. I found all sections very, very informative.
Tough course but challenging in a good way. This course challenges you to think differently and will improve your skillset in many areas including analysis, critical thinking, and numbers.
Awesome couse for learning applications of statistics in real world problems. They show how can we optimize the results using the most common tool among all business environments: excel.
關於 商业与金融建模 專項課程
Wharton's Business and Financial Modeling Specialization is designed to help you make informed business and financial decisions. These foundational courses will introduce you to spreadsheet models, modeling techniques, and common applications for investment analysis, company valuation, forecasting, and more. When you complete the Specialization, you'll be ready to use your own data to describe realities, build scenarios, and predict performance.
常見問題
我什么时候能够访问课程视频和作业？
讲座和作业的访问权限取决于您的注册类型。如果您以旁听模式参加课程，则可以免费查看大多数课程资料。要访问评分作业并获得证书，您需要在旁听期间或之后购买证书体验。如果看不到旁听选项：
- 课程可能不提供旁听选项。您可以尝试免费试用，也可以申请助学金。
- 课程可能会改为提供'完整课程，没有证书'。通过此选项，您可以查看所有课程材料、提交所要求的作业，以及获得最终成绩。这也意味着您将无法购买证书体验。
我订阅此专项课程后会得到什么？
您注册课程后，将有权访问专项课程中的所有课程，并且会在完成课程后获得证书。您的电子课程证书将添加到您的成就页中，您可以通过该页打印您的课程证书或将其添加到您的领英档案中。如果您只想阅读和查看课程内容，可以免费旁听课程。
Is financial aid available?
是的，Coursera 可以为无法承担费用的学生提供助学金。通过点击左侧“注册”按钮下的“助学金”链接可以申请助学金。您可以根据屏幕提示完成申请，申请获批后会收到通知。您需要针对专项课程中的每一门课程完成上述步骤，包括毕业项目。了解更多。
完成课程后，我会获得大学学分吗？
此课程不提供大学学分，但部分大学可能会选择接受课程证书作为学分。查看您的合作院校，了解详情。Coursera 上的在线学位和 Mastertrack™ 证书提供获得大学学分的机会。
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