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初級

完成時間大約為12 小時

建議:4 weeks of study; 3-4 hours/week...

英語(English)

字幕:英語(English), 烏克蘭語

您將獲得的技能

Sunk CostsCost–Benefit AnalysisCognitive BiasDecision-MakingData AnalysisStatistical Inference

100% 在線

立即開始,按照自己的計劃學習。

可靈活調整截止日期

根據您的日程表重置截止日期。

初級

完成時間大約為12 小時

建議:4 weeks of study; 3-4 hours/week...

英語(English)

字幕:英語(English), 烏克蘭語

教學大綱 - 您將從這門課程中學到什麼

1
完成時間為 1 小時

Introduction

Individuals and cultures can make themselves smarter. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, people have become enormously smarter. The Information Age requires a brand-new set of skills involving statistics, probability, cost-benefit analysis, principles of cognitive psychology, logic and dialectical reasoning....
1 個視頻 (總計 15 分鐘), 3 個閱讀材料
1 個視頻
3 個閱讀材料
Welcome Message and Course Principles from Professor Nisbett10分鐘
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
Help us learn more about you!10分鐘
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 1: Statistics

Basic concepts of statistics and probability including the concepts of variable, normal distribution, standard deviation, correlation, reliability, validity, and effect size. Concrete examples are drawn from everyday life and show how the concepts can be used to solve ordinary problems....
2 個視頻 (總計 29 分鐘), 2 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗
2 個視頻
Introduction to Correlation16分鐘
2 個閱讀材料
Interactive Activity10分鐘
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
1 個練習
Lesson 1 Quiz18分鐘
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 2: The Law of Large Numbers

How to think about events in such a way that they can be counted and a decision can be made about how much data is enough. You will learn about the concept of error variance and how it can be combatted by obtaining multiple observations. Your will learn that your judgments about people’s personalities are prone to serious errors that are largely avoided for judgments about abilities. And you will discover why it’s usually a mistake to interview job applicants. ...
2 個視頻 (總計 27 分鐘), 2 個閱讀材料, 4 個測驗
2 個視頻
The Law of Large Numbers: Part 215分鐘
2 個閱讀材料
Interactive Activity10分鐘
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
4 個練習
Pre-lecture Reflection Prompt5分鐘
Pre-lecture Quiz5分鐘
Lesson 2 Quiz12分鐘
Post-lecture Reflection Prompt5分鐘
2
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 3: Correlation

It can be extremely difficult to make an accurate assessment of how two variables are related to one another; prior beliefs can be more important than data in estimating the strength of a given relationship. You will learn simple tools to estimate degree of association. You will learn about the nature of illusory correlations and how to avoid them. You will learn about the concepts of confounded variable and self-selection error....
4 個視頻 (總計 25 分鐘), 3 個閱讀材料, 2 個測驗
4 個視頻
The Draw-a-Person Test4分鐘
Illusory Correlation6分鐘
Confounded Variables; Statistical Significance9分鐘
3 個閱讀材料
Pre-lecture Activity10分鐘
Interactive Activity10分鐘
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
2 個練習
Correlation Exercises10分鐘
Lesson 3 Quiz10分鐘
完成時間為 2 小時

Lesson 4: Experiments

You will learn that correlations can only rarely provide conclusive evidence about whether one variable exerts a causal influence on another and why experiments provide far better evidence about causality than correlations. You will be shown how to conduct experiments in business settings and experiments on yourself. You will learn the distinction between within subject designs and between subject designs. You will learn about the concept of artifacts and some tricks for avoiding them. You will learn how to discover natural experiments....
3 個視頻 (總計 42 分鐘), 2 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗
3 個視頻
A/B Testing9分鐘
Experimental Design and Natural Experiments17分鐘
2 個閱讀材料
Pre-lecture Activity5分鐘
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
1 個練習
Lesson 4 Quiz26分鐘
3
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 5: Prediction

You will learn about the kinds of systematic errors we make when trying to predict the future. You will learn about regression to the mean and why you should assume that extreme values on a variable will be less extreme when next observed. You will learn how to think about observations in terms of true score plus error. You will learn about the concept of base rate and why it must be taken into account when estimating probabilities of specific events....
2 個視頻 (總計 40 分鐘), 2 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗
2 個視頻
Base Rate22分鐘
2 個閱讀材料
Pre-lecture Question5分鐘
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
1 個練習
Lesson 5 Quiz8分鐘
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 6: Cognitive Biases

We understand the world not through direct perception but through inferential procedures that we are unaware of. Our understanding of the world is heavily influenced by schemas or abstract representations of events. We are prone to serious judgment errors that can be avoided to a degree when we understand their basis. We make guesses about probability and causality by applying the representativeness heuristic based on similarity assessments which can be very misleading. We make judgments about frequency and probability by relying in part on the availability heuristic, judging things as frequent or probable to the degree that instances come readily to mind....
3 個視頻 (總計 36 分鐘), 1 個閱讀材料, 2 個測驗
3 個視頻
Heuristics11分鐘
Fundamental Attribution Error; Confirmation Bias11分鐘
1 個閱讀材料
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
2 個練習
Pre-lecture Quiz5分鐘
Lesson 6 Quiz22分鐘
4
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 7: Choosing and Deciding

How to conduct a cost-benefit analysis. Why you should throw the analysis away after doing it if the decision is personal and very important. How to avoid throwing good money after bad. How to avoid doing something that will prevent you from doing something more valuable. Why it can be expensive to try to avoid the possibility of loss. Why incentives can backfire....
3 個視頻 (總計 38 分鐘), 1 個閱讀材料, 2 個測驗
3 個視頻
Sunk Costs10分鐘
Loss Aversion12分鐘
1 個閱讀材料
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
2 個練習
Pre-lecture Activity5分鐘
Lesson 7 Quiz14分鐘
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 8: Logic and Dialectical Reasoning

The distinction between inductive logic and deductive logic. Syllogisms. Conditional reasoning. The distinction between truth of an argument and validity of an argument. The concepts of necessity and sufficiency. Venn diagrams. Common logical errors. When to avoid contradiction and when to embrace it, how to avoid undue certainty about judgments and decisions, and why attention to context rather than form is crucial for analysis of most real-world problems....
2 個視頻 (總計 36 分鐘), 1 個閱讀材料, 2 個測驗
2 個視頻
Dialectical Reasoning16分鐘
1 個閱讀材料
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
2 個練習
Pre-lecture Quiz8分鐘
Lesson 8 Quiz20分鐘
完成時間為 16 分鐘

Conclusion

...
1 個視頻 (總計 6 分鐘), 2 個閱讀材料
1 個視頻
2 個閱讀材料
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book
Post-course Survey10分鐘
4.7
82 個審閱Chevron Right

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完成這些課程後已開始新的職業生涯

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創建者 NPAug 7th 2017

A very good course prof Richard has explained very difficult to understand concepts in a very simple language and made it easy for students to grasp the subject matter easily.

創建者 PDec 24th 2018

Excellent introduction to basic tools (awareness of some cognitive biases / heuristics, the importance of contextual factors, etc.) for sharpening our minds: It´s a must! :-)

講師

Avatar

Richard E. Nisbett

Theodore M. Newcomb Distinguished University Professor
Department of Psychology

關於 密歇根大学

The mission of the University of Michigan is to serve the people of Michigan and the world through preeminence in creating, communicating, preserving and applying knowledge, art, and academic values, and in developing leaders and citizens who will challenge the present and enrich the future....

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