課程信息
4.7
259 ratings
61 reviews
Most professions these days require more than general intelligence. They require in addition the ability to collect, analyze and think about data. Personal life is enriched when these same skills are applied to problems in everyday life involving judgment and choice. This course presents basic concepts from statistics, probability, scientific methodology, cognitive psychology and cost-benefit theory and shows how they can be applied to everything from picking one product over another to critiquing media accounts of scientific research. Concepts are defined briefly and breezily and then applied to many examples drawn from business, the media and everyday life. What kinds of things will you learn? Why it’s usually a mistake to interview people for a job. Why it’s highly unlikely that, if your first meal in a new restaurant is excellent, you will find the next meal to be as good. Why economists regularly walk out of movies and leave restaurant food uneaten. Why getting your picture on the cover of Sports Illustrated usually means your next season is going to be a disappointment. Why you might not have a disease even though you’ve tested positive for it. Why you’re never going to know how coffee affects you unless you conduct an experiment in which you flip a coin to determine whether you will have coffee on a given day. Why it might be a mistake to use an office in a building you own as opposed to having your office in someone else’s building. Why you should never keep a stock that’s going down in hopes that it will go back up and prevent you from losing any of your initial investment. Why it is that a great deal of health information presented in the media is misinformation....
Globe

100% 在線課程

立即開始,按照自己的計劃學習。
Calendar

可靈活調整截止日期

根據您的日程表重置截止日期。
Beginner Level

初級

Clock

建議:4 weeks of study; 3-4 hours/week

完成時間大約為10 小時
Comment Dots

English

字幕:English, Ukrainian

您將獲得的技能

Sunk CostsCost–Benefit AnalysisCognitive BiasDecision-MakingData AnalysisStatistical Inference
Globe

100% 在線課程

立即開始,按照自己的計劃學習。
Calendar

可靈活調整截止日期

根據您的日程表重置截止日期。
Beginner Level

初級

Clock

建議:4 weeks of study; 3-4 hours/week

完成時間大約為10 小時
Comment Dots

English

字幕:English, Ukrainian

教學大綱 - 您將從這門課程中學到什麼

1

章節
Clock
完成時間為 1 小時

Introduction

Individuals and cultures can make themselves smarter. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, people have become enormously smarter. The Information Age requires a brand-new set of skills involving statistics, probability, cost-benefit analysis, principles of cognitive psychology, logic and dialectical reasoning....
Reading
1 個視頻(共 15 分鐘), 3 個閱讀材料
Video1 個視頻
Reading3 個閱讀材料
Welcome Message and Course Principles from Professor Nisbett10分鐘
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分鐘
Help us learn more about you!10分鐘
Clock
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 1: Statistics

Basic concepts of statistics and probability including the concepts of variable, normal distribution, standard deviation, correlation, reliability, validity, and effect size. Concrete examples are drawn from everyday life and show how the concepts can be used to solve ordinary problems....
Reading
2 個視頻(共 29 分鐘), 2 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗
Video2 個視頻
Introduction to Correlation16分鐘
Reading2 個閱讀材料
Interactive Activity10分鐘
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分鐘
Quiz1 個練習
Lesson 1 Quiz18分鐘
Clock
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 2: The Law of Large Numbers

How to think about events in such a way that they can be counted and a decision can be made about how much data is enough. You will learn about the concept of error variance and how it can be combatted by obtaining multiple observations. Your will learn that your judgments about people’s personalities are prone to serious errors that are largely avoided for judgments about abilities. And you will discover why it’s usually a mistake to interview job applicants. ...
Reading
2 個視頻(共 27 分鐘), 2 個閱讀材料, 4 個測驗
Video2 個視頻
The Law of Large Numbers: Part 215分鐘
Reading2 個閱讀材料
Interactive Activity10分鐘
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分鐘
Quiz4 個練習
Pre-lecture Reflection Prompt5分鐘
Pre-lecture Quiz5分鐘
Lesson 2 Quiz12分鐘
Post-lecture Reflection Prompt5分鐘

2

章節
Clock
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 3: Correlation

It can be extremely difficult to make an accurate assessment of how two variables are related to one another; prior beliefs can be more important than data in estimating the strength of a given relationship. You will learn simple tools to estimate degree of association. You will learn about the nature of illusory correlations and how to avoid them. You will learn about the concepts of confounded variable and self-selection error....
Reading
4 個視頻(共 25 分鐘), 3 個閱讀材料, 2 個測驗
Video4 個視頻
The Draw-a-Person Test4分鐘
Illusory Correlation6分鐘
Confounded Variables; Statistical Significance9分鐘
Reading3 個閱讀材料
Pre-lecture Activity10分鐘
Interactive Activity10分鐘
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分鐘
Quiz2 個練習
Correlation Exercises10分鐘
Lesson 3 Quiz10分鐘
Clock
完成時間為 2 小時

Lesson 4: Experiments

You will learn that correlations can only rarely provide conclusive evidence about whether one variable exerts a causal influence on another and why experiments provide far better evidence about causality than correlations. You will be shown how to conduct experiments in business settings and experiments on yourself. You will learn the distinction between within subject designs and between subject designs. You will learn about the concept of artifacts and some tricks for avoiding them. You will learn how to discover natural experiments....
Reading
3 個視頻(共 42 分鐘), 2 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗
Video3 個視頻
A/B Testing9分鐘
Experimental Design and Natural Experiments17分鐘
Reading2 個閱讀材料
Pre-lecture Activity5分鐘
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分鐘
Quiz1 個練習
Lesson 4 Quiz26分鐘

3

章節
Clock
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 5: Prediction

You will learn about the kinds of systematic errors we make when trying to predict the future. You will learn about regression to the mean and why you should assume that extreme values on a variable will be less extreme when next observed. You will learn how to think about observations in terms of true score plus error. You will learn about the concept of base rate and why it must be taken into account when estimating probabilities of specific events....
Reading
2 個視頻(共 40 分鐘), 2 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗
Video2 個視頻
Base Rate22分鐘
Reading2 個閱讀材料
Pre-lecture Question5分鐘
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分鐘
Quiz1 個練習
Lesson 5 Quiz8分鐘
Clock
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 6: Cognitive Biases

We understand the world not through direct perception but through inferential procedures that we are unaware of. Our understanding of the world is heavily influenced by schemas or abstract representations of events. We are prone to serious judgment errors that can be avoided to a degree when we understand their basis. We make guesses about probability and causality by applying the representativeness heuristic based on similarity assessments which can be very misleading. We make judgments about frequency and probability by relying in part on the availability heuristic, judging things as frequent or probable to the degree that instances come readily to mind....
Reading
3 個視頻(共 36 分鐘), 1 個閱讀材料, 2 個測驗
Video3 個視頻
Heuristics11分鐘
Fundamental Attribution Error; Confirmation Bias11分鐘
Reading1 個閱讀材料
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分鐘
Quiz2 個練習
Pre-lecture Quiz5分鐘
Lesson 6 Quiz22分鐘

4

章節
Clock
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 7: Choosing and Deciding

How to conduct a cost-benefit analysis. Why you should throw the analysis away after doing it if the decision is personal and very important. How to avoid throwing good money after bad. How to avoid doing something that will prevent you from doing something more valuable. Why it can be expensive to try to avoid the possibility of loss. Why incentives can backfire....
Reading
3 個視頻(共 38 分鐘), 1 個閱讀材料, 2 個測驗
Video3 個視頻
Sunk Costs10分鐘
Loss Aversion12分鐘
Reading1 個閱讀材料
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分鐘
Quiz2 個練習
Pre-lecture Activity5分鐘
Lesson 7 Quiz14分鐘
Clock
完成時間為 1 小時

Lesson 8: Logic and Dialectical Reasoning

The distinction between inductive logic and deductive logic. Syllogisms. Conditional reasoning. The distinction between truth of an argument and validity of an argument. The concepts of necessity and sufficiency. Venn diagrams. Common logical errors. When to avoid contradiction and when to embrace it, how to avoid undue certainty about judgments and decisions, and why attention to context rather than form is crucial for analysis of most real-world problems....
Reading
2 個視頻(共 36 分鐘), 1 個閱讀材料, 2 個測驗
Video2 個視頻
Dialectical Reasoning16分鐘
Reading1 個閱讀材料
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分鐘
Quiz2 個練習
Pre-lecture Quiz8分鐘
Lesson 8 Quiz20分鐘
Clock
完成時間為 16 分鐘

Conclusion

...
Reading
1 個視頻(共 6 分鐘), 2 個閱讀材料
Video1 個視頻
Reading2 個閱讀材料
(Optional) Companion Readings from the Mindware book分鐘
Post-course Survey10分鐘
4.7

熱門審閱

創建者 NPAug 7th 2017

A very good course prof Richard has explained very difficult to understand concepts in a very simple language and made it easy for students to grasp the subject matter easily.

創建者 SNMay 27th 2017

Excellent! A very informative course delivered in a very effective manner. I would highly recommend this course to all who have any interest at all in critical thinking.

講師

Richard E. Nisbett

Theodore M. Newcomb Distinguished University Professor
Department of Psychology

關於 University of Michigan

The mission of the University of Michigan is to serve the people of Michigan and the world through preeminence in creating, communicating, preserving and applying knowledge, art, and academic values, and in developing leaders and citizens who will challenge the present and enrich the future....

常見問題

  • Once you enroll for a Certificate, you’ll have access to all videos, quizzes, and programming assignments (if applicable). Peer review assignments can only be submitted and reviewed once your session has begun. If you choose to explore the course without purchasing, you may not be able to access certain assignments.

  • When you purchase a Certificate you get access to all course materials, including graded assignments. Upon completing the course, your electronic Certificate will be added to your Accomplishments page - from there, you can print your Certificate or add it to your LinkedIn profile. If you only want to read and view the course content, you can audit the course for free.

還有其他問題嗎?請訪問 學生幫助中心