[MUSIC] Welcome to Understanding China, 1700 to 2000, a Data Analytic Approach Part Two, Section 13, Universal Female and Restricted Male Marriage. The recent trend of rising sex ratios at birth, powered perhaps by sex selective abortion, rather than the post-natal infanticide. From 106 males to 100 females in the late 1970s to 120, 118 males to every 100 females in the beginning of the 21st century has raised massive concerns about the excessive unmarried Chinese males. And the fear that these unmarried Chinese males might give rise to, I don't know, increases in criminality. Waves of unmarried Chinese males running amok either within or beyond China's borders in search of unmarried females. However, as we will see in this section, the proportion of Chinese males who could not find a wife was historically always high. And in fact, if anything, was even greater in Chinese history. We contrast two tables and two charts. First females' marriage and then male marriage. And this table which shows the proportion of females never married by age 30 in China for selected periods and populations, running from the 17th to the late 20th century for various areas in China. Shows that universal female marriage has hardly changed from the 17th century to today. In spite of a significant rise in the age of marriage from the late teens to the mid-late 20s, the proportion of females never marrying by age 30 has hardly changed. While 15% of Western females today continue to remain never married by age 40. Until the very late 20th century, as we can see, only 1% percent of Chinese females are unmarried at age 30. And while it is true that the proportion of never married females, say in the early age 30s has abruptly increased, according to the 2010 census from 1 to 5%. It is not yet clear if this just reflects yet another increase in the age of marriage, or if the number of unmarried women age 40 and above will eventually also increase. So in other words so far as we can tell, for females throughout the 20th century and even into the 21st century, there seems to be a universal practice and belief in the importance of marriage. Historically, and this chart contrasts the reports of never married females in several largely early 19th century European and Chinese populations. Comparing northeast China with Sweden, Norway, England, and Denmark, and you can see that at the earliest age, 20 to 24, 90% of Chinese females were already married. While 60 to 70% of English females, 80% of Scandinavian females were still single. And you can see that by age 30 to 34, virtually no Chinese female remains single, whereas 30% of their Western counterparts were still spinsters. Now, contrast this female universal marriage with differential male marriage. Now we can see that, in fact, a phenomenon of late male marriage and frequent celibacy was historically true and continues today. And in that sense, the recent rise in sex ratio at birth really doesn't mean that the historical patterns of Chinese marriage are going to change. The accompanying table again compares the share of never married females by age 30 and age 40 from the 17th to the early 21st century. And we can see that through out this period, 10% or more of all men were unmarried by age 30, and more than 5% were still unmarried by age 40. Bachelorhood, in other words, was a universal Chinese phenomenon regardless of time or place. And if we contrast the proportion of never married-males by age, comparing again northeast China with Sweden, Norway, England and Denmark. We can see that, while Chinese men may have married slightly earlier than European men, some 20% of all men in all societies were still unmarried by age 30. Even by age 40 to 45, in both China and the West, 10 to 15% of males were still bachelors. [MUSIC]