案例学习：预测房价

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來自 University of Washington 的課程

机器学习：回归

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案例学习：预测房价

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Ridge Regression

You have examined how the performance of a model varies with increasing model complexity, and can describe the potential pitfall of complex models becoming overfit to the training data. In this module, you will explore a very simple, but extremely effective technique for automatically coping with this issue. This method is called "ridge regression". You start out with a complex model, but now fit the model in a manner that not only incorporates a measure of fit to the training data, but also a term that biases the solution away from overfitted functions. To this end, you will explore symptoms of overfitted functions and use this to define a quantitative measure to use in your revised optimization objective. You will derive both a closed-form and gradient descent algorithm for fitting the ridge regression objective; these forms are small modifications from the original algorithms you derived for multiple regression. To select the strength of the bias away from overfitting, you will explore a general-purpose method called "cross validation". <p>You will implement both cross-validation and gradient descent to fit a ridge regression model and select the regularization constant.

- Emily FoxAmazon Professor of Machine Learning

Statistics - Carlos GuestrinAmazon Professor of Machine Learning

Computer Science and Engineering

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Okay, so let's consider the resulting objective,

where I'm gonna try and search over all possible w vectors.

To find the ones that minimize the sum of residual sum of squares plus the square

of the two norm of w.

So that's gonna be my w hat, my estimated model parameters.

But really what I'd like to do, is I'd like to be able to control how much I'm

weighing the complexity of the model as measured by this magnitude of my

coefficient, relative to the fit of the model.

I'd like to balance between these two terms, and so

I'm gonna introduce another parameter.

And this is called a tuning parameter.

With the model, it's a lambda, and this is balancing between this fit and magnitude.

So let's see what happens if I choose lambda to be 0.

Well, if I choose lambda to be 0,

this magnitude term that we've introduced completely disappears and

my objective reduces down just to minimizing the residual sum of squares.

Which was exactly the same as my objective before.

So, this reduces to

minimizing residual sum

of squares of w as before.

So this is our old solution,

Which leads to some w hat which I'm gonna call

w hat superscript LS for least squares.

Because what we were doing before is commonly referred to

as the least squares solution.

So I'm gonna specifically represent the parameters associated

with that old procedure we're doing as the least squares parameters.

On the other hand,

what if I completely crank up that tuning parameter to be infinity?

So I have a really, really massively large weight on this magnitude term.

Massively large being infinitely large.

So as large as you can possibly imagine.

So what happens to any solution where w hat is not equal to 0?

So, For

solutions where w hat does not equal 0.

Then the total cost is what?

Well I get something that's non-0 times infinity plus something,

my residual sum of squares, whatever that happens to be.

But the sum of that is infinity.

Okay, so my total cost is infinite.

On the other hand, what if w hat is exactly equal to 0?

Then if w hat equals 0,

then total cost is equal to the residual sum

of squares of this 0 vector.

And that's some number, but it's probably not infinity.

Actually it's not infinity, so

the minimizing solution here is always gonna be w hat equals 0.

Cuz that's the thing that's gonna minimize the total cost over all possible w's.

Okay, so just to recap, we said that if we put that tuning parameter

all the way to 0, make it very, very small, all the way to 0.

Then we return to our previously square solution and

if we crank that parameter all the way up to be infinite.

In that limit, we get all of our coefficients being exactly 0, okay?

But we're gonna be operating in a regime where lambda is somewhere in between 0 and

infinity.

And in this case, Then we know

that the magnitude of our estimated coefficients,

they're gonna be less than or

equal to the magnitude of our least squares coefficients.

In particular, the two norm will be less than.

But we also know it's gonna be greater than or equal to 0.

So we're gonna be somewhere in between these two regions.

And a key question is, what lambda do we actually want?

How much do we want to bias away from our least square solution,

which was subject to potentially over-fitting, down to this really simple,

the most trivial model you can consider which is nothing, no model?

So, well not no model, no coefficients in the model.

What's the model if all the coefficients are 0?

Just noise, we just have y equals epsilon, that noise term.

Okay, so we're gonna think about somehow trading off between these two extremes.

Okay, I wanted to mention that this is referred to as Ridge regression.

And that's also known as doing L2 regularization.

Because, for reasons that we'll describe a little bit more later in this module,

we're regularizing the solution to the old objective that we had,

using this L2 norm term.

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