案例学习：预测房价

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來自 University of Washington 的課程

机器学习：回归

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案例学习：预测房价

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Closing Remarks

In the conclusion of the course, we will recap what we have covered. This represents both techniques specific to regression, as well as foundational machine learning concepts that will appear throughout the specialization. We also briefly discuss some important regression techniques we did not cover in this course.<p> We conclude with an overview of what's in store for you in the rest of the specialization.

- Emily FoxAmazon Professor of Machine Learning

Statistics - Carlos GuestrinAmazon Professor of Machine Learning

Computer Science and Engineering

[MUSIC]

Congratulations for getting through this really challenging course.

We covered a lot, a lot of ground discussing many ideas relating to

regression, as well as more general ideas that are foundational to machine learning.

So let's just recap where we've been, and

then look ahead to what's next in a specialization.

Okay, I know, I love to start slides with okay, but that's how it is.

So okay, what have we learned in this regression course?

Well in the first module we talked about something called simple regression.

Let's just remember what simple regression was.

This is where we assume that we just had a single input and we're just fitting

a very simple line as a relationship between the input and the output.

Then we discussed what the cost was of using a given line, and for

this we define something we called the residual sum of squares.

Then once we've defined our residual sum of squares,

this allows us to assess the different fits of different lines.

And then with that we can choose which best fits our specific training data set.

In particular, to find the best fitting line, we talked about our objective being

an objective over two variables, which represented our slope and our intercept.

And the specific algorithm that we went through in this module was

gradient descent, which we discussed was an iterative algorithm that

moves in the direction of the negative gradient.

And for convex functions, converges to the optimum.

We then turn to multiple regression.

And multiple regression allowed us to fit

more complicated relationships between our single input and our output.

We talked about polynomial regression, seasonality, and lots of different

features of our single input that we could use in a multiple regression model.

But then we talked more generically about incorporating different inputs.

Like in our housing applications, square feet, number of bathrooms,

number of bedrooms, lot size, year built, as well as features of these inputs.

And so generically, we wrote our multiple regression model as follows.

So it's just a weighted collection of our features h of our inputs xi for

our ith house.

Plus some epsilon term,

which is our error representing the noise in our observations.

Then for this case of multiple regression we have some more complicated relationship

between, now, a whole bunch of features and our output.

We talked about how we define our residual sum of squares.

And then, in order to derive both a closed form solution as well as

a gradient descent algorithm,

we talked about taking the gradient of this residual sum of squares.

So it's pretty cool how, even when dealing with a large collection of features,

we can derive a closed-form solution which says, just given all of our data,

we just have to compute the term shown here.

And that will give us our estimated set of coefficients for all of our features.

But we also talked about the fact that this could be computationally intensive.

It's operations are cubic and

the number of features that we have in addition to the fact that this matrix,

H transpose, H that we might have to invert, might not be invertible.

And so now we know that this is where ridge regression can be so useful.

In the cases where we might not have a matrix that we can invert,

the ridge regression is just a very simple modification to this closed-form solution,

and leads to forms that are always invertible.

And thus allows us to handle cases where we have lots and lots of features,

even more features than we have observations.

But instead of this closed-form solution which we mentioned could

be very computationally intensive, we talked about a gradient descent

algorithm which is an iterative procedure for solving this optimization objective.

Where we can start at any point in our space, so anywhere.

And compute the gradient, and take these steps.

Where, remember, there was a step size that we had to set.

Where is our step size, here it is.

And that determined a lot of the properties of

how quickly we converged to the optimal.

But we showed that, in our well-behaved cases,

that we would converge to this optimal solution.

And this idea of gradient descent, or this optimization algorithm, is a very

general purpose tool that we're gonna see again later in this specialization.

[MUSIC]