Now I want to shift gears a bit and move into looking at disaster trends. Here we have a number of data, a number of graphs and charts that will give you an idea about what's happening. And over the last decade and even before the last decade we've seen a lot of dramatic changes. And if we look at these trends, it'll help us not only see where we've been but we can see where we're going in the future. Another trend that we're seeing a lot of these days, and that is the numbers of people displaced by conflict. And this is becoming an increasing concern as we'll see later in this series, this is a more complicated area than it used to be. In 1974, there were only three million displaced persons from conflict, and that number has multiplied and multiplied many times since that time. One of the trends we can see are the number of people that are displaced in low-income countries and the photograph here, photograph I took in Haiti of people that were displaced in these temporary quarters even two years after the earthquake. Now if we look at the numbers and trends we'll see that since 1900 the total number of disasters has been rising, these are natural disasters. Dramatically they peaked about 1998, and then they started dropping off a bit since that time. If we break that out, we can see that floods are the most common there. Now the big question comes. Are these more disasters these days or do we just have better news media and picks up the consequences? Because back in 1900, WiFi wasn't very good and so we didn't get a lot of communication of disasters. Well the answer to that is probably yes on both accounts. Yes that there are more disasters. Yes we do know a lot more about disasters when they occur. And furthermore yes there are a lot more people standing in harm's way than they were in 1900. So if we look at the total number of deaths, we see exactly this kind of pattern. If we see the deaths from all types of disasters, the big numbers were up till 1930, then we see things started dropping off. Interestingly enough the big spikes come from floods, occasionally they come from other causes but floods are the most common causes of large scale loss of life from natural disasters and it's interesting that we've seen the numbers of deaths from natural disasters dropping off, so since about 1966, we've not seen any large scale loss of life from natural disasters. Again, this comes from our understandings of vulnerabilities, and our building of capacities. Now do you think we will not have a big spike in the future from floods? I think that's unlikely, we're going to see something in the future. When it's going to happen, we don't know, but I think we can't lull ourselves into thinking that we're not going to see big losses of life in the future. Where do natural disasters occurs? Not surprisingly, the majority of them occur in Asia, which accounts for a very large landmass. And also if we were to look at this a bit differently and look at the number of people that were affected. We would see the same kind of pattern. In Asia, the largest number of population of people living and they are going to be affected by natural disasters in these areas. If we look at economic losses then we have a slightly different picture because here we see a lot in Asia but we see a lot in the Americas and if we were to look at where Africa is in all of this, we'd be pretty hard pressed to find that and this isn't because there are not disasters affecting Africa, but because there is relatively much less in the way of economic development in Africa to be affected by disasters, as there would be in Asia or in the Americas. If we look in a different way at the populations affected by conflict, we have this graph which comes from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, which only goes back to 1996, but you can see there has been a steady increase in the number of people that have been displaced. Now, in the dark blue above we have what are known as internally displaced persons. These are people that have been forced to flee from their homes by and large from conflict although to some extent from natural disasters but they have remained in their own country. And this is of concern to the international community because internally displaced people do not have the same level of assistance available to them that the refugees would. Now in the bottom, in the green color, we see refugees and asylum seekers. Now, refugees are people in this graph, who have been declared as refugees. So they have been registered by the U.N. system and they have the protection and they have the acknowledgement of the UN system. Asylum-seekers are people who are trying to become refugees, but for various reasons they cannot be registered as refugees. And you can see that number has steadily risen as we moved to 2014, 2016 and many of you will have no problem remembering, this came about because of the large number of people displaced from the conflict in first in Iraq, and then subsequently and particularly so in Syria. So here if we look at the UN data from end of 2015, we would see where displaced persons are. These are refugees. These are people in refugee-like situations. These are people that sometimes miss the standard classification, so the UN calls them persons of concern. You can see that the three biggest areas, two of which are labeled there, Turkey and Lebanon, are definitely related to the conflict in Syria. Some place under those bubbles is another one of about the same size which is Jordan which is not labeled there. But then if we go back a bit further, we look at the two bubbles on the right, Pakistan and Iran. These are representing people left over from the conflicts in Afghanistan. Some of who have been there from the beginning and some of whom are still moving because of the continuing conflict particularly in these bordering areas. Overall if we look at where the world's displaced population comes from, half of the world's displaced population are displaced by conflict comes from Afghanistan, Syria and Somalia. So Ethiopia has a lot from Somalia, a lot from Sudan remaining.
