Energy issues have always been important in international relations, but in recent years may have become even more important than in the past due to the widespread awareness of existing limits to energy sources and negative climate impacts. The course discusses global trends in energy consumption and production, various available scenarios for potential developments in the coming decades, the availability of oil reserves and the evolution of the oil industry. It then discusses natural gas and highlights the differences between oil and gas. It will also discuss renewable energy sources, nuclear energy and EU energy policy. The course aims at providing students whose main interest is in international relations a background on energy resources, technology and economic realities to allow them to correctly interpret the political impact of current developments. It also aims at providing students, who already have a technical background in energy science or engineering, with the broad global view of energy issues that will allow them to better understand the social, economic and political impact of their technical knowledge. ABOUT THE INSTRUCTOR : Giacomo Luciani Scientific Advisor for the Master in International Energy at the Paris School of International Affairs (PSIA) Sciences Po, Giacomo Luciani is also Adjunct Professor at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva and Director of the Executive Master in International Oil and Gas Leadership. For the period 2010-13 he was appointed Princeton University Global Scholar, attached to the Woodrow Wilson School and the Department of Near Eastern Studies. His research focuses on the political economy of the Middle East and North Africa and on global energy issues. RECOMMENDED BACKGROUND : The course requires no special scientific, mathematical or economic background; all key concepts are clearly and elementarily explained. It is expected that it will be of interest to undergraduate and graduate students in schools where an equivalent course is not offered (this being the case for the vast majority of schools). USPC Sorbonne Paris Cité Supported by Université Sorbonne Paris Cité IDEX Investissements d'Avenir Funded by Investissements d'Avenir - 'ANR. Info : Course content : Licence Creative Commons BY NC SA
Interview with Professor Jean-Pierre Favennec - part 3
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來自 Sciences Po 的課程
Politics and Economics of International Energy
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Week #3 : Global oil reserves and resources
This module presents the Introduction to liquid fuels, Definition and issues about oil reserves, Oil production and the impact of non-conventional oil
與講師見面
Giacomo LucianiProfessor and Scientific Advisor for the Master in International Energy
Paris School of International Affairs
-You mentioned that African crude oil from Nigeria, Algeria, etc.
is being displaced from the USA
because they are no longer importing from these countries.
What is happening?
What are the consequences in Africa at the moment?
-Limited consequences I think, but we have to look in detail.
It is clear that very recently
exports of Nigerian and Angolan oil to the USA have fallen to almost nothing.
All this oil is probably going to China and India instead.
Even if the consumption slows down,
meaning a reduced increase of oil demand in these countries,
they still need large quantities of oil.
There is an old story which is often told.
I do not know who said that
but basically if you want to put China on four wheels,
you need five planets.
The calculation is simple:
there are more or less 5 to 700 hundred cars in the USA
for 1.000 inhabitants.
In China, even with their huge recent development,
there are only between 50 and 70 cars for 1.000 inhabitants.
If the Chinese had the same number of cars as in the USA
compared to the population,
they would use the same amount of oil per inhabitant.
Each US inhabitant is using about 3 tons of oil every year.
If the Chinese consumed the same amount,
since they have 1,3 billion inhabitants
they would reach the total oil consumption of the world.
China is of course a big country
but only holds one fifth of the population.
So you need five planets to put the Chinese on four wheels.
It is a bit stupid, but it gives an idea
of the huge potential increase in the oil demand.
Fortunately there should be a limitation of the number of cars
and probably a decrease in the unit consumption of gasoline for cars.
But the potential is huge anyway.
-In Africa there has been some major discoveries recently.
It is considered a very promising continent
for the future of oil and gas, right?
-Yes.
The important fact is that over the last years
probably 60% of oil and gas discoveries
were made in Africa.
This is very impressive when you know that in fact
Africa represents a bit less than 8 to 9%
of the total oil and gas reserves and consumption.
Gas is more particularly limited, not because there is no need for it,
but because it is relatively complex to distribute.
It is costly and the population has a very low purchasing power.
So before those recent discoveries,
Africa was already an interesting country
for oil and gas but in a more limited way.
There is especially a fair production in Libya
where there are many problems these days
but also in Angola and Algeria.
But in total, West Africa produces around 5 to 6 million barrels a day
compared to 90 million barrels a day
for the total oil production in the world.
So it is relatively limited.
One of the biggest events that occurred recently
was a huge discovery of gas in Mozambique and Tanzania.
In the future, we could expect them to produce LNG,
liquefied natural gas, because they will have to.
They will use limited quantities in their country
and also in South Africa which would be a good thing for the latter.
But basically they will produce LNG
and its potential is identical to that of Qatar
which represents 80 million tons a year.
Of course when you compare this figure
to the total consumption of oil and gas, it is limited,
but it is huge from the point of view of LNG.
The total production of LNG today
is no more than about 250 to 300 million tons a year.
So it is very important for gas
and there is also a potential for shale gas in Algeria and South Africa.
There are lots of different discussions in those two countries
regarding this matter because of this great potential.
But will they develop shale gas or not?
Regarding crude oil, I would be much more cautious.
There were clearly new discoveries such as in Ghana
which is currently producing.
Uganda and Kenya will probably also produce in the future.
So there are new discoveries from time to time.
But let us take the example of Ghana:
this country produces 100.000 barrels a day,
which is only a bit more than one thousandth
of the world production.
This is good for the country and its region
but it remains relatively limited.
So there are limited discoveries for oil,
and more important for gas.
-Chinese companies are especially active in Africa, are not they?
-Yes of course.
Recently I had a long talk on this topic.
There are three big Chinese companies.
Two in particular are very active everywhere:
CNPC for China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec
which was previously a petrochemical company
before becoming an important oil company.
This is because the situation in China
is the same as in France during the 1920's or in Italy around 1945.
This reminds me a story I really like
about Mr Enrico Mattei and the Seven Sisters.
Getting back to China,
these companies are doing the same as Agip Eni did for Italy at the time.
They go abroad to find crude oil and bring it back home
because the domestic production is very limited.
It is how Mr Mattei was very successful in Iran and Russia.
CNPC and Sinotec are very active in Africa
because when you go abroad to find oil,
you have to take into account the fact that some of the countries
are closed to international companies.
Whether they are private or national Chinese companies,
countries such as most of the Gulf region,
Russia de facto, are closed to them.
So they are going to Africa where they can find fair quantities of oil.
Most of their oil is produced in Sudan.
They are also very active in Chad and Niger
where they have found fair quantities.
But relationships between Chinese companies
and governments are sometimes a bit difficult.
But they are clearly very active in this region.
-Thank you very much.
We have touched many points that we have been discussing in our lectures
and I think this will help us understand the situation very well.
Thank you Jean-Pierre.
