关于本课程 为了解释全球化是如何重构公共政策和再塑社会行为，我们将研究不同的政治、经济行为体、研究各类——公共或私人，个体或集体——社会行为体，并着眼关注到它们之间的交流和互动作用，这些行为体正在重构着国际关系。 本课程以法国社会学和历史学视角来研究国际关系。同时也提供英语版本(www.coursera.org/learn/global-studies/)、法语版本(www.coursera.org/learn/espace-mondial-fr/)和阿拉伯语版本(www.coursera.org/learn/espace-mondial-ar/)。
人口变化趋势的多元性
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來自 Sciences Po 的課程
世界空间、法国视角下的国际研究
4 個評分
與講師見面
Bertrand BadieProfessor
Marie-Françoise DurandProfessor
Let's now move to another dimension of our problem,
it's territory as a support of population.
And this is probably
a very important factor for understanding the transformation of the global order by now.
Let's have in mind that in 1800,
there were only one billion of people on the world.
At the end of the fifties,
we were at three billion of people.
But now world has seven billion of people.
This transformation is a major factor of instability and is explaining why,
what was possible in the 20th century is no more useful and even meaningful now.
It explain also why politics cannot be considered now as it was at this time.
This is the new world,
and this new world has some characteristic that I propose to take now into account.
First you know that but I think it's very important to stress on,
half of the humanity is located between Indus and Japan,
on a territory which is about the double of the European territory.
That's to say on these South and East Asia
one individual out of two is located in this part of the world.
And in this part of the world,
the human density was,
for a long time,
a very strong rural density,
creating rural societies in a way that we can't imagine through our European history.
And now this rural density is moving to a urban density with a real explosion,
a real proliferation of cities,
everywhere in Asia and now also and more and more in Latin America and in Africa.
In this part of the world, six states,
six countries have more than 100 million of inhabitants.
This demographic power is a new dimension in
the new geopolitics that we can't ignore from our European observation.
With this evolution, with this transformation of the world population,
we discover that old powers will
be secondary powers if we compare with the new demographic powers.
In 2050, France will have about 50% of the Ethiopian population,
and Iran will have about 120 million inhabitants.
You can imagine that in this world who was shaped by Europe
and consider by Europe as its own creation,
the real capacity, demographic capacity of the Asian world,
and after for the African world will totally transform
the main characteristics of
the global political balance.
Now another point as to be emphasized,
Africa is now 1/7 of the world populations,
but in 2050 one individual,
one human being out of four will be an African.
We can imagine easily that in 2050 Africa will play a role which
is quite different from the role which is now assigned to this continent.
Now I would like to stress three dimensions of these global demography.
First one: aging.
Second one: urbanization.
Third one: migration.
One of the main parameters of
the global transformation is aging of one part of the world,
but on the other hand the increasing part of young people in other parts of the world.
European and Japanese population is aging.
This problem is a major problem, especially in Japan,
in which we say that in 2030 if Japan wants to keep the same level of active population,
it will have to host about 30% of migrant people.
This is a great transformation for this kind of society.
But the economic future, the social future,
and even the political future of Europe is also clearly
conditioned by this very concerning aging population.
But in the same time,
the growing young population creates other problems especially,
of course, in developing countries.
Let's take into account the case of Niger,
this Francophone African state.
In 2030, 74% of the population will be less than 30 year old.
And this proportion will be 62% for all Africa,
when in Europe, the proportion will be 29.
You see the gap and what it does mean.
Now, nowadays 200 million Africans are between 15 and 24.
That's to say, for them,
no job or poor chance to get a job, unemployment,
and so idleness, maybe violence,
and maybe even attracted by the child soldiers status.
Another aspect would be the growth of middle class,
which is probably one of the main parameter of
the transformation of the social structure in the world.
Middle class is increasing strongly especially in the rising powers: Brazil,
China, India, and so on.
Now, we consider that three billion people are in the middle class in our present world.
They will be five billion in 2030.
This implies new values,
new kinds of conception,
new social structures, and probably,
new kind of political representation.
Now, urbanization in the world is a crucial dimension of these demographic turmoils.
In 1975 only three towns in the world had more than 10 million people.
In 2050 there will be 27 towns which will count more than 10 million people.
In Africa in 1960,
that's to say the time of the independence and decolonization,
only 53 million people were living in towns.
Now, there are more than 400 million,
and 50% of them are living in slums.
Urbanization as I mentioned is a crucial dimension of our topic for a very simple reason,
which has been properly analyzed by Karl Deutsch.
That's to say Deutsch points that
abrupt and messy urbanization create an anarchical social mobilization,
and this anarchical social mobilization leads to violence,
to radicalism, to protest,
and obviously, we observed that radical
Islam took roots in recently urbanized part of the Muslim world.
Muslim Brothers were created in
the Nile Delta when the Islamist revolution took place in Tehran,
at a time when the city counted about 10 million of people.
This new fundamentalism finds in
urbanization new networks for being involved and being committed,
and these networks are connected to those traditional societies,
and so religion and a fundamental radical vision of religion plays an important role.
Let's turn now to migration,
which is probably the most disputed aspect
of the demographic problems of our present world.
A migrant is every people born abroad and was not a citizen of the hosting country.
U.N. report in 2000 indicated that migration should be considered as good,
because migration is playing very positive functions.
First, migration is balancing aging of developed societies.
Migration is also able to take in charge rejected jobs.
Migration is also able to cover social expenses,
social insurance, and pensions.
Migration does not fit to
the main points of a common sense which is brought by the political rhetoric.
First, migration is not an invasion, is not massive.
We know now that migration covers about 3% of the world population, only 3%.
And 50 years ago,
it was around 2 to 2.5%.
That's to say, a very light change.
Of course, in 1965 we counted about 75 million migrants.
Now it's around 200 million because the global population has increased,
but it's not this massive invasion which was predicted by so many observers.
A certain point that we have to keep in mind is that migration is a suffering.
First of all, a suffering,
people will have to leave their village, their family,
their common social networks,
and to go abroad to a country which is not well known,
where they will not be properly hosted,
and people will have to take a risk.
For instance during 2014,
only during one year,
3500 people died in Mediterranean when trying to cross the sea for joining Europe.
That is first of all a tragedy,
a disaster for those who try to do that.
Third point, migration is also a normality in a global world.
In a global world,
migrant is probably the future of humanity.
That's to say we are in a world which is more and more communicating,
which is more and more transnational,
and how would it be possible to resist to
this appeal of migration created
by the transformation of the population in developed society,
and in developing societies.
Keep in mind that during the next 25 years,
Italy will lost about 3 million people in its active population.
When Nigeria will have 25 million more in its active population.
How can a Nigerian resist to this appeal, to this discrepancy?
Migration is also the main source
of hybridization of population.
We are now entering in a world in which
ethnicity is no more shaping the world order.
That's to say in each nation state,
in each territory, we have hybridized population.
And this hybridization creates a new kind of society in which
more and more people are depending on their hosting societies,
but also on the society of their origin,
and sometimes also on the society of transit.
That's to say, this migration is creating
a new kind of humanity in which more and more the origins,
and the reference are more and more diversified.
Migration create a condition of globalization of issues.
That's to say, with migration domestic issues are less and less domestic,
and more and more internationalized.
That's to say, for instance,
an event in Middle East,
an event in Africa is also becoming an event in Europe through this migration,
through this global network of people,
through this new web which is more and more structured,
and more and more creating new kind of social behaviors.
That is modernity.
