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Valuation

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需求管理：分解当今商业世界的孤岛

4.7（199 個評分） | 5.8K 名學生已註冊

課程 3（共 4 門，酒店管理：分销、营收和需求管理專項課程）

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The biggest challenge facing the hospitality industry over the next 5 years is the lack of integration between the key commercial disciplines of sales, revenue, distribution and finance and the negative impact this will continue to have on delivering asset value and maximum profitability. This course, spread over 4 key modules: Asset Management Demand Generation Digital Marketing Demand Optimisation aims to break down these commercial silos and reveal the journey from long-term asset development through to short-term profit tactics and how commercial teams can align themselves throughout the organisation. Created by SnapShot, this course is hosted by a group of experienced Industry guest lecturers in their fields of expertise and includes an ideal mix of accessible theory and practical exercises and simulations. SnapShot is a Hotel Demand Management company that specializes in helping hotels aggregate and use their data. We provide useful tools as well as innovative education and coaching services to empower hotels to take informed decisions in managing their demand to increase profits.

您將學習的技能

Revenue Management, Forecasting, Demand Management, Asset Management

審閱

4.7（199 個評分）

5 stars
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4 stars
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CR

Dec 16, 2015

Absolutely brilliant course with a variety of speakers from different backgrounds - loved it!

SR

Feb 19, 2019

This was fun and educational Thank you so much for putting this together

從本節課中

Asset Management

After a short introduction and definition of asset management, this module will explore the relationship between what we call the "Asset management triangle" actors. We will then walk through the different milestones of a hotel project, from start to finish, from initial plan to exit.

Operation and Asset Management3:39

Asset Cycle5:02

Exit Strategy3:41

教學方

Peter O'Connor
Professor of information systems, Director of the MBA in Hospitality Management
Alex Slors
Independent Hotel Asset Manager & Development Consultant
David Turnbull
Co-Founder and CCO
Brendan May
COO Livabout
Martin Soler
Independent Marketing Consultant
Lennert De Jong
Commercial Director

[MUSIC]

Welcome back.

Before we look at exit structures within the asset cycle as discussed in

the previous session, it's important to focus on the valuation of the property.

Contrary to popular belief,

the bricks and mortar of a hotel and everything that's in it, are worthless.

Of course, they are on the balance sheet and they're properly accounted for and

depreciated.

However, the real valuation of a hotel is based on its trading results,

in particular the NOI.

An exception to this are the so-called trophy assets that

can get significantly more than a multiplication of it's NOI,

as wealthy individuals want to be associated with a particular hotel.

So, here you see two ways of looking at value.

You've got the market value,

which is what someone is willing to pay at a given time for any asset.

And you have a mathematical value based on some sort of valuation model.

Let's get some basics right on the valuation model.

Value is in essence, about cash flow.

The easiest way is to consider cash in your pocket or not.

On one hand the cash is coming in through the operation, and control of working

capital, chasing debts aggressively, whilst not paying your suppliers.

On the other hand cash is going out through all the operational cost, Cap Ex,

FF&E reserves, and financing costs.

By forecasting the results and

cash flow of a hotel over a period of time, we get a good idea of its value.

But we also need to consider, there are calculations based on a discount rate.

Which takes into account not just the time value of money,

as one euro today does not have the value as one euro in the future.

But also the risk and uncertainty of future cash flows.

The capitalization or cap rate, which is the rate of return on a real estate

investment property based on the income that the property is expected to generate.

This rate is different based on a location and a variety of other factors.

The lower the rate, the better it is.

Apart from the future cash flow, we need to consider

any growth factor that we can think of in order to realistically boost evaluation.

Increased revenues, decreased costs, better market conditions,

reduced risks, and a smarter Capex or investment schedule.

This is not the place to go into complex mathematical formulas.

And there are great tools inside of spreadsheets to help simple people like

myself, but the essence is that value.

Equals discounted cash flow plus expected future growth.

Now, let's get a few examples going of what

can impact the growth of our cash flow.

Let's consider this hotel scenario.

The NOI $2.5 million and the capitalization rate, as explained before,

for the city of this hotel is 7%.

7% is

the equivalent of the multiplier of the hundred divided seven which equals 14.3.

So that times the NOI gives a rough value of 35.2 million.

So far so good?

Now we move to example one behind me where we will change the occupancy of

the hotel and grow it with 5% but everything else will remain the same.

Variable cost will increase accordingly as volume is growing but

NOI grows by .3 of million.

And, as a result, the valuation increases by about 4 million.

In example two we will change the average rate of the hotel and

grow it by 5%, whilst everything else remains the same.

Variable costs are not affected, as the volume remains the same.

So the revenue growth only affects revenue-related fees,

and flow through will be well over 90%.

The NOI grows by 0.4 of 1 million.

As a result, the valuation increase by about 6.4 million euros.

Now, in example three, let's look at RevPAR growth of 5%,

whereby half is rate driven and the other half is volume driven.

As expected, you see that this one is slotting in

in between the previous two examples as variable costs are impacted.

Here we're looking at a value increase of about five million.

Finally, in example four, we look at cost control.

Usually the first knee jerk reaction when things are going not as good as expected

and a hotel needs to drive NOI.

A 1% cost reduction across the board is a big exercise and

will affect quality while certain costs are and remain fixed.

And labor related changes can take a long time and cost to action.

This 1% cost control will add a bit more than two millions to the valuation.

So it's clear that driving revenues should always be the first option.

If we compare these results, it's obvious the driving rates will always be

the winner, followed by rev par, then volume, and then cost control.

So value creation is achieved through optimization of cash flows from operation,

as we just saw, combined with smart investments and FF&E expenditure.

When looking at returns from CAPICs, you must only look at the incremental

revenues, cost, and NOI, and compare that to the money that you have invested.

Reduced business risk is a bonus.

So in closing, please consider the following, many initiatives for increased

revenues and or reduction of course included investments or one of course

it is important to have the ROI approach in any of these business decisions.

And increase in NOI should be related to the cost

in order to get the proper return.

Is value created or not?

It is all about converting to the bottom line.

Now that we have covered this,

we can cover exit strategies and this will happen in the next session.

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