Hi there. My name is Brett Cohen and I'm a Senior Researcher at the Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town. Where I'm going to have a look at some of the models and tools that might be used to support the kinds of processes that we are exploring as part of this course. Now, in your previous session you learnt about the importance of having an evidence base of knowledge in order to effect change. And at the same time you also heard briefly about the role that research consortium has to play in supporting the processes that we discuss in here. So in this session what I'm going to do is introduce you to these models and tools that not only provide you with information about greenhouse gas emissions and how they might evolve. But also to talk a little bit about the way that we quantify the developmental impact of greenhouse gas mitigation and some of the costs associated with it. I'm also then going to have a look at how we use the information that's gathered out of these models and tools In order to tell stories that might be helpful in engaging policy makers and stakeholders. Now, when I talk about the models and tools here, what kinds of information might we be interested In producing using such models and tools. Well, the first thing that might come to mind is that we might be interested in how our greenhouse gas emissions, measured in, say, tons of CO2 equivalence, might evolve over time. And the first instance that we might look at is the evolution of these emissions under what we sometimes term a business as usual, or a BAU and we sometimes term a baseline. All right? The terms are used interchangeably. Sometimes people use different, use them in different contexts, so it's important to understand what is being referred to here. But you might see that terminology. And then what we have a look at is how these emissions might evolve in various mitigation scenarios. So what might the impacts of, for example, using wind or solar power in the electricity sector, do? What might intervention in the transport sector, such as Bus Rapid Transport systems, road to rail shift, electric vehicles too. In the industrial sector, we have a whole host of different interventions that we might look at in the cement sector, the iron and steel sector and others. The waste sector is a producer of greenhouse gas emissions. And we might choose to capture landfill gas or recycle materials. Which will then have upstream and downstream impacts on a emissions. And finally in the AFOLU sector, AFLOU stands for agriculture, forestry and land use, we might look at what grassland preservation would do to emissions or what changing agricultural practices might do. We then might also run some scenarios when we have a look at the impact of a tax, for example, on our greenhouse gas emissions. And then what that allows us to do is to come along and plot different scenarios of emission reductions under differing levels of penetration or levels of effort on related to these mitigated interventions. And our ultimate is to try and reduce greenhouse guest emissions to the point where we are able to allow greenhouse guest emissions to rise to a point and ultimately start to decline. because that's what we need to do in order to reach our two degrees targets. The metals and tools that we referred to in this exercise, not only provide us with information relating to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions over time, but also could provide us with information as to what is it going to cost in order to affect these interventions. What is the impact going to be on our GDP of our economy? What is the impact going to be on balance of payments, unemployment and then we could also like at things like household income and various other aspects of the broader economy. So those are the kinds of considerations that we're going to be covering as part of today's lesson.