The most obvious tool an analyst can rely on to reinvent for the future is horizon scanning. Horizon scanning is about identifying the issues over the horizon that could profoundly shape the future landscape, though they may not be doing so currently. One governmental report in the UK defined horizon scanning as “A systematic examination of information to identify potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities, allowing for better preparedness and the incorporation of mitigation and exploitation into the policy-making process." In other words, horizon scanners in the policy-making world are interested in determining how emerging issues could lead decision-makers to review their current approaches so as to better adapt them to future needs and challenges. Horizon scanning should also make current strategies less vulnerable to future uncertainty. The same holds true for the private sector. As managers consider the emerging trends and developments that matter to them, they can adapt their long-term strategic approach. Indeed, they can identify the future sources of value and growth that will matter most to them in the future. And in both the private sector and the policy-making world, the take-away lesson should be the same. Everything is not a strategic surprise. With thorough analysis, with a little bit of curiosity and imagination, the analyst has ways of identifying and anticipating the threats and the opportunities to think about for the future of her activities. You should think about this for a moment. What issues over the horizon do you face, as an individual both at a personal level and at a professional level? Pause this video and think about it for a moment. I'm sure you came up with numerous answers. The trick probably lies in asking yourself this question at different key moments of your life. The example of the changing nature of information, entertainment and communication is an another interesting example that we should think about. Consider what your grandparents used to call phones, back in the old days. Those old devices look rather unimpressive to most of us, at least from a technical standpoint and expect, perhaps, for collectors. Now, think about the technological advances we’ve made since then and how technically sophisticated smartphones are. Wondering about the future of voice communication, given these evolutions, is a rather legitimate question. But it doesn’t stop there. Think about what “going to the movies” meant in the 1920s for instance. Consider how televisions transformed the entertainment experience at home, which heavily relied on radio, a voice-only entertainment, prior to that. And think about not only what a TV now looks like, but also how all associated products have evolved and what they can now do. Last but not least, think about what “going to the movies” means today. Again, asking the question of the future of entertainment is legitimate. Let’s take this a step further. Think about what a computer looked like not so long ago. And think about what it now looks like, and how it keeps on changing even in the short run, and all the things we can do with it. Here too, it is easy to accept that the future of computing and computers is a fully open question. One last step. Consider what game consoles looked like yesterday and what they are today. Some are more powerful, far more powerful even, than what you could have ever imagined two decades ago. In each of these instances, the rate at which the devices has evolved, and the way media is shared has changed is striking and can seem impressive to some of us. But what’s more, it is not hard to observe how these different products are interacting with each other and how the boundaries between each is increasingly blurry. It is not hard either to imagine how these increasingly portable and increasingly interactive tools could merge and create new opportunities for a wide range of industries and actors, in the future. Horizon scanning is interested in that convergence and the interactions between a wide range of trends that initially did not seem destined to meet. In practice, horizon scanning can be carried out through three different and non-mutually exclusive channels. The first one is brainstorming. Get a bunch of smart people in a room to think about the future of a topic. In the end, you are likely to get new insights and novel ways of thinking that could help an organization adapt its approach in order to fully capitalize on future gains. Data analysis can be another helpful approach. As the attention that the “big data” question has recently gotten suggests, accessing data has become increasingly easier. It’s a matter of making sense out of observable trends and thinking about how they could evolve in the future. Yesterday's data analyst is increasingly becoming the social scientist of tomorrow. Last but not least, intuition can be helpful. An analyst with experience can legitimately believe that the small clues she’s collecting on the ground as well as her own logic could be enough evidence to act upon it. Some countries and regions like the UK, the US and the EU and Singapore have institutionalized horizon scanning at the government level. It’s interesting that in each instance, the private sector is consulted or could rely on the work that is done in order to better anticipate future trends. Today, in the US and in the EU, influential reports about the world in fifteen years have focused on issues over the horizon, that could shape the future landscape. These reports are well-known and debated in policymaking and business circles. You’ll get a chance to look at these after this video is done. In Singapore, the Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) program developed what is now known as “whole-of-government approaches” which, in the organization's own words, “hinges on a collaborative approach linking ministries and agencies across government. It has the potential to connect silos and challenge mindsets, develop an instinct to share, and encourage a collective analysis of possible futures." In all of these instances, a wide range of actors, coming from a wide range of industries and activities, look to discuss future realities that could emerge tomorrow and that can be identified as early as today. So remember. Not everything is a strategic surprise. Not everything is top secret either. Before we conclude, let’s remember how you can carry out horizon scanning meaningfully. Does horizon scanning rely on: A – Brainstorming B – Data Analysis C – Your intuition D – All of the above? The answer is D, of course. You’ll have indeed noted from this discussion that, because everything is not unpredictable, some issues over the horizon can be identified thanks to brainstorming, data analysis, and intuition. The real requirement lies in better awareness of the landscape. The bottom line? With thorough analysis, a bit of imagination and a bit of curiosity, decision-makers can think about the future emerging realities.
