課程信息

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We live in an uncertain and complex world, yet we continually have to make decisions in the present with uncertain future outcomes.  Indeed, we should be on the look-out for "black swans" - low-probability high-impact events.
To study, or not to study?  To invest, or not to invest?  To marry, or not to marry?

While uncertainty makes decision-making difficult, it does at least make life exciting!  If the entire future was known in advance, there would never be an element of surprise.  Whether a good future or a bad future, it would be a known future.

In this course we consider many useful tools to deal with uncertainty and help us to make informed (and hence better) decisions - essential skills for a lifetime of good decision-making.

Key topics include quantifying uncertainty with probability, descriptive statistics, point and interval estimation of means and proportions, the basics of hypothesis testing, and a selection of multivariate applications of key terms and concepts seen throughout the course.

學生職業成果

33%

完成這些課程後已開始新的職業生涯

25%

通過此課程獲得實實在在的工作福利

可分享的證書

完成後獲得證書

100% 在線

立即開始，按照自己的計劃學習。

可靈活調整截止日期

根據您的日程表重置截止日期。

初級

完成時間大約為18 小時

英語（English）

字幕：英語（English）

學生職業成果

33%

完成這些課程後已開始新的職業生涯

25%

通過此課程獲得實實在在的工作福利

可分享的證書

完成後獲得證書

100% 在線

立即開始，按照自己的計劃學習。

可靈活調整截止日期

根據您的日程表重置截止日期。

初級

完成時間大約為18 小時

英語（English）

字幕：英語（English）

教學大綱 - 您將從這門課程中學到什麼

內容評分96%（3,860 個評分）

週

1

週 1

完成時間為 2 小時

Dealing with Uncertainty and Complexity in a Chaotic World

完成時間為 2 小時

8 個視頻（總計 68 分鐘）, 6 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

8 個視頻

Welcome!3分鐘

1.1 The Monty Hall Problem9分鐘

1.2 Decision Making Under Uncertainty10分鐘

1.3 Uncertainty in the News9分鐘

1.4 Simplicity vs. Complexity - The Need for Models10分鐘

1.5 Safe to Assume? Beware, When Model Assumptions Go Wrong!9分鐘

1.6 Roadmap of the Course9分鐘

Week One Summary and Key Takeaways4分鐘

6 個閱讀材料

1.1 The Monty Hall Problem10分鐘

1.2 Decision Making Under Uncertainty10分鐘

1.3 Uncertainty in the News10分鐘

1.4 Simplicity vs. Complexity - The Need for Models10分鐘

1.5 Safe to Assume? Beware, When Model Assumptions Go Wrong!10分鐘

1.6 Roadmap of the Course10分鐘

1 個練習

Week One Quiz20分鐘

週

2

週 2

完成時間為 3 小時

Quantifying Uncertainty With Probability

完成時間為 3 小時

7 個視頻（總計 74 分鐘）, 6 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

7 個視頻

2.1 Probability Principles13分鐘

2.2 Simple Probability Distributions11分鐘

2.3 Expectation of Random Variables13分鐘

2.4 Bayesian Updating11分鐘

2.5 Parameters9分鐘

2.6 The Distribution Zoo11分鐘

Week Two Summary and Key Takeaways4分鐘

6 個閱讀材料

2.1 Probability Principles10分鐘

2.2 Simple Probability Distributions10分鐘

2.3 Expectation of Random Variables10分鐘

2.4 Bayesian Updating10分鐘

2.5 Parameters10分鐘

2.6 The Distribution Zoo10分鐘

1 個練習

Week Two Quiz20分鐘

週

3

週 3

完成時間為 4 小時

Describing The World The Statistical Way

完成時間為 4 小時

7 個視頻（總計 78 分鐘）, 6 個閱讀材料, 2 個測驗

7 個視頻

3.1 Classify Your Variables!11分鐘

3.2 Data Visualisation11分鐘

3.3 Descriptive Statistics - Measures of Central Tendency13分鐘

3.4 Descriptive Statistics - Measures of Spread10分鐘

3.5 The Normal Distribution11分鐘

3.6 Variance of Random Variables13分鐘

Week Three Summary and Key Takeaways5分鐘

6 個閱讀材料

3.1 Classify Your Variables!10分鐘

3.2 Data Visualisation10分鐘

3.3 Descriptive Statistics - Measures of Central Tendency10分鐘

3.4 Descriptive Statistics - Measures of Spread10分鐘

3.5 The Normal Distribution10分鐘

3.6 Variance of Random Variables10分鐘

1 個練習

Week Three Quiz

週

4

週 4

完成時間為 2 小時

On Your Marks, Get Set, Infer!

完成時間為 2 小時

7 個視頻（總計 78 分鐘）, 6 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

7 個視頻

4.1 Introduction to Sampling12分鐘

4.2 Random Sampling11分鐘

4.3 Further Random Sampling12分鐘

4.4 Sampling Distributions11分鐘

4.5 Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean11分鐘

4.6 Confidence Intervals13分鐘

Week Four Summary and Key Takeaways5分鐘

6 個閱讀材料

4.1 Introduction to Sampling10分鐘

4.2 Random Sampling10分鐘

4.3 Further Random Sampling10分鐘

4.4 Sampling Distributions10分鐘

4.5 Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean10分鐘

4.6 Confidence Intervals10分鐘

1 個練習

Week Four Quiz

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Probability and Statistics: To p or not to p?