課程信息
4.8
104 個評分
22 個審閱
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初級

初級

完成時間(小時)

完成時間大約為14 小時

建議:7 hours/week...
可選語言

英語(English)

字幕:英語(English), 阿拉伯語(Arabic), 中文(簡體), 巴西葡萄牙語, 西班牙語(Spanish)...
100% online

100% online

立即開始,按照自己的計劃學習。
可靈活調整截止日期

可靈活調整截止日期

根據您的日程表重置截止日期。
初級

初級

完成時間(小時)

完成時間大約為14 小時

建議:7 hours/week...
可選語言

英語(English)

字幕:英語(English), 阿拉伯語(Arabic), 中文(簡體), 巴西葡萄牙語, 西班牙語(Spanish)...

教學大綱 - 您將從這門課程中學到什麼

1
完成時間(小時)
完成時間為 15 分鐘

Welcome to the Course

<p>Welcome to <b>Think Again: How to Reason Inductively</b>! This course is the third in a series of four courses jointly titled <em>Think Again: How to Reason and Argue</em>. We are excited that you are taking this course, and we hope that you will take all four courses in the series, because there is a great deal of important material to learn.</p><p>In the series as a whole, you learn how to analyze and evaluate arguments and how to avoid common mistakes in reasoning. These important skills will be useful to you in deciding what to believe and what to do in all areas of your life. </p><p>The first part of this course introduces the series and the course. It also clarifies some peculiarities you may find with this course. We encourage you to watch the "<b>Introduction to the Course</b>" video first as it will help you learn more from the materials that come later. </p>...
Reading
1 個視頻(共 5 分鐘), 1 個閱讀材料
Video1 個視頻
Reading1 個閱讀材料
Course Logistics (Start Here)10分鐘
完成時間(小時)
完成時間為 6 小時

Inductive Arguments

<p><b>CONTENT</b>: This week begins by distinguishing inductive arguments from deductive arguments. Then we discuss four common forms of inductive argument: generalizations from samples (such as in political polls), applications of generalizations to particular cases (such as in predicting weather on a certain day), inferences to the best explanation (such as in using evidence to determine who committed a crime), and arguments from analogy (such as in identifying the use of one archaeological artifact by comparing it to other artifacts). We will expose the most common mistakes in these kinds of reasoning. Some of the "lectures" this week are a bit experimental (and perhaps weird!), as you will see. We hope that you enjoy them.<p><b>LEARNING OUTCOMES</b>: By the end of this week's material you will be able to do:<ul> <li>distinguish inductive from deductive arguments</li> <li>classify inductive arguments into five kinds</li> <li>identify and evaluate arguments that generalize from samples</li><li>identify and evaluate arguments that apply generalizations to cases</li><li>identify and evaluate inferences to the best explanation by applying standards that good explanations must meet</li><li>identify and evaluate arguments from analogy</li></ul></p><p><b>OPTIONAL READING</b>: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these kinds of inductive arguments, we recommend <em>Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition</em>, Chapters 8 and 9.</p>...
Reading
9 個視頻(共 129 分鐘), 8 個測驗
Video9 個視頻
Generalizations from Samples9分鐘
When are Generalizations Strong?20分鐘
Applying Generalizations17分鐘
Another Example of Applying Generalizations (Optional)16分鐘
Inference to the Best Explanation8分鐘
Which Explanation Is Best?14分鐘
A Student Example of Inference to the Best Explanation8分鐘
Arguments from Analogy18分鐘
Quiz8 個練習
What Is Induction?24分鐘
Generalizations from Samples10分鐘
When are Generalizations Strong?24分鐘
Applying Generalizations24分鐘
Inference to the Best Explanation20分鐘
Which Explanation Is Best?20分鐘
A Student Example: Inference to the Best Explanation6分鐘
Arguments from Analogy30分鐘
2
完成時間(小時)
完成時間為 4 小時

Causal Reasoning

<p><b>CONTENT</b>: This module will focus on how to decide what causes what. Students will learn how to distinguish necessary conditions from sufficient conditions and how to use data to test hypotheses about what is and what is not a necessary condition or a sufficient condition. Then we will distinguish causation from correlation (or concomitant variation) and explain the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc. It is sad that some diners had to die to make this lesson possible, as you will see.</p> <p><b>LEARNING OUTCOMES</b>: By the end of this week’s material you will be able to do: <ul> <li> analyze causal reasoning</li> <li>distinguish necessary from sufficient conditions</li> <li>determine what is necessary or sufficient for what</li> <li>separate causation from correlation</li> </ul> </p> <p><b>OPTIONAL READING</b>: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these topics, we recommend <em>Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition</em>, Chapter 10.</p> ...
Reading
9 個視頻(共 100 分鐘), 8 個測驗
Video9 個視頻
Negative Sufficient Condition Tests9分鐘
Positive Sufficient Condition Tests10分鐘
Negative Necessary Condition Tests4分鐘
Positive Necessary Condition Tests6分鐘
Complex Conditions11分鐘
Correlation Versus Causation20分鐘
Causal Fallacies5分鐘
A Student Example: Causal Reasoning About Chocolate15分鐘
Quiz8 個練習
Causal Reasoning24分鐘
Negative Sufficient Condition Tests22分鐘
Positive Sufficient Condition Tests6分鐘
Negative Necessary Condition Tests20分鐘
Positive Necessary Condition Tests4分鐘
Complex Conditions18分鐘
Correlation Versus Causation14分鐘
Causal Fallacies8分鐘
3
完成時間(小時)
完成時間為 6 小時

Chance and Choice

<p><b>CONTENT</b>: This week will cover chance and choice—in other words, probability and decision making. Probability is useful for measuring the strength of inductive arguments and also for deciding what to believe and what to do. You will learn about the nature and kinds of probability along with four simple rules for calculating probabilities. An optional honors lecture will then explain Bayes’ theorem and the common mistake of overlooking the base rate. Next we will use probabilities to evaluate decisions by figuring their expected financial value and contrasting financial value with overall value. </p><p><b>LEARNING OUTCOMES</b>: By the end of this week’s material, you will be able to do: <ul><li> solve some classic paradoxes of probability</li><li>apply simple rules of probability</li><li>use Bayes’ theorem to calculate conditional probabilities</li><li>avoid fallacies of probability</li><li>apply probabilities to calculate expected financial values</li><li>distinguish financial value from overall value</li><li>use simple rules to aid decisions under uncertainty</li></ul></p><p><b>OPTIONAL READING</b>: If you want more examples or more detailed discussions of these topics, we recommend<em> Understanding Arguments, Ninth Edition</em>, Chapters 11 and 12 ...
Reading
10 個視頻(共 117 分鐘), 9 個測驗
Video10 個視頻
What Is Probability?8分鐘
Negation2分鐘
Conjunction12分鐘
Disjunction9分鐘
Series6分鐘
Bayes Theorem (Optional)28分鐘
Expected Financial Value13分鐘
Expected Overall Value10分鐘
The Sausage Argument: A Student Argument About Decision Making13分鐘
Quiz9 個練習
Why Probability Matters8分鐘
What Is Probability?18分鐘
Negation14分鐘
Conjunction30分鐘
Disjunction32分鐘
Series8分鐘
Bayes Theorem (Optional)42分鐘
Expected Financial Value18分鐘
Expected Overall Value10分鐘
4
完成時間(小時)
完成時間為 1 小時

Catch-Up and Final Quiz

<p>This week gives you time to catch up and review, because we realize that the previous weeks include a great deal of challenging material. It will also be provide enough time to take the final quiz as often as you want, with different questions each time. </p><p>We explain the answers in each exam so that you can learn more and do better when you try the exam again. You may take the quiz as many times as you want in order to learn more and do better, with different questions each time. You will be able to retake the quiz three times every eight hours. You might not need to take more than one version of the exam if you do well enough on your first try. That is up to you. However many versions you take, we hope that all of the exams will provide additional learning experiences. </p>...
Reading
1 個測驗
Quiz1 個練習
Final Quiz分鐘
4.8
22 個審閱Chevron Right

熱門審閱

創建者 SMJun 22nd 2017

This entire series was informative, engaging, and fun, and the thinking skills taught are so valuable.

創建者 MGApr 16th 2018

Very effective teaching . It creates the power to judge arguments more accurately .

講師

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Dr. Walter Sinnott-Armstrong

Professor
Philosophy
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Dr. Ram Neta

Professor
Philosophy

關於 Duke University

Duke University has about 13,000 undergraduate and graduate students and a world-class faculty helping to expand the frontiers of knowledge. The university has a strong commitment to applying knowledge in service to society, both near its North Carolina campus and around the world....

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“I'd like to thank both professors for the course. It was fun, instructive, and I loved the input from people from all over the world, with their different views and backgrounds.”

    

“Somewhere in the first couple weeks of the course, I was ruminating over some concept or perhaps over one of the homework exercises and suddenly it occurred to me, "'Is this what thinking is?" Just to clarify, I come from a thinking family and have thought a lot about various concepts and issues throughout my life and career...but somehow I realized that, even though I seemed to be thinking all the time, I hadn't been doing this type of thinking for quite some time...so, thanks!”

    

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